Two Dimensional Thinking and APT

I expect many readers will recognize the image at left as representing part of the final space battle in Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan. During this battle, Kirk and Spock realize Khan's tactics are limited. Khan is treating the battle like it is occuring on the open seas, not in space. Spock says:

He is intelligent, but not experienced. His pattern indicates two-dimensional thinking.

I though this quote could describe many of the advanced persistent threat critics, particularly those who claim "it's just espionage" or "there's nothing new about this." Consider this one last argument to change your mind. (Ha, like that will happen. For everyone else, this is how I arrive at my conclusions.)

I think the problem is APT critics are thinking in one or two dimensions at most, when really this issue has at least five. When you only consider one or two dimensions, of course the problem looks like nothing new. When you take a more complete look, it's new.

1. Offender. We know who the attacker is, and like many of you, I know this is not their first activity against foreign targets. I visited the country as an active duty Air Force intelligence officer in 1999. I got all the briefings, etc. etc. This is not the first time I've seen network activity from them. Wonderful.


2. Defender. We know the offender has targeted national governments and militaries, like any nation-state might. What's different about APT is the breadth of their target base. Some criticize the Mandiant report for saying:
   
   The APT isn't just a government problem; it isn't just a defense contractor problem. The APT is everyone's problem. No target is too small, or too obscure, or too well-defended. No organization is too large, two well-known, or too vulnerable. It's not spy-versus-spy espionage. It's spy-versus-everyone.
   
   The phrasing here may be misleading (i.e., APT is not attacking my dry cleaner) but the point is valid. Looking over the APT target list, the victims cover a broad sweep of organizations. This is certainly new.


3. Means. Let's talk espionage for a moment. Not everyone has the means to be a spy. You probably heard how effective the idiots who tried bugging Senator Landrieu's office were. With computer network exploitation (at the very least), those with sufficient knowledge and connectivity can operate at nearly the same level as a professional spy. You don't have to spend nearly as much time teaching tradecraft for CNE, compared to spycraft. You can often hire someone with private experience as a red teamer/pen tester and then just introduce them to your SOPs. Try hiring someone who has privately learned national-level spycraft.


4. Motive. Besides "offender," this is the second of the two dimensions that APT critics tend to fixate upon. Yes, bad people have tried to spy on other people for thousands of years. However, in some respects even this is new, because the offender has his hands in so many aspects of the victim's centers of power. APT doesn't only want military secrets; it wants diplomatic, AND economic, AND cultural, AND...


5. Opportunity. Connectivity creates opportunity in the digital realm. Again, contrast the digital world with the analog world of espionage. It takes a decent amount of work to prepare, insert, handle, and remove human spies. The digital equivalent is unfortunately still trivial in comparison.

To summarize, I think a lot of APT critics are focused on offender and motive, and ignore defender, means, and opportunity. When you expand beyond two-dimensional thinking, you'll see that APT is indeed new, without even considering technical aspects.

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Example of Threat-Centric Security

In my last post I mentioned the need to take threat-centric approaches to advanced persistent threat. No sooner than I had posted those thoughts do I read this:

Beijing 'strongly indignant' about U.S.-Taiwan arms sale

The Obama administration announced the sale Friday of $6 billion worth of Patriot anti-missile systems, helicopters, mine-sweeping ships and communications equipment to Taiwan in a long-expected move that sparked an angry protest from China.

In a strongly worded statement on Saturday, China's Defense Ministry suspended military exchanges with the United States and summoned the U.S. defense attache to lodge a "solemn protest" over the sale, the official Xinhua news agency reported.

"Considering the severe harm and odious effect of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, the Chinese side has decided to suspend planned mutual military visits," Xinhua quoted the ministry as saying. The Foreign Ministry said China also would put sanctions on U.S. companies supplying the equipment.

It would have been interesting if the Obama administration had announced its arms sale in these terms:

"Considering the severe harm and odious effect of the advanced peristent threat, the American side has decided to sell the following arms to Taiwan."

It's time for the information security community to realize this problem is well outside our capability to really make a difference, without help from our governments.

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Mandiant M-Trends on APT

If you want to read a concise yet informative and clue-backed report on advanced persistent threat, I recommend completing this form to receive the first Mandiant M-Trends report.

Mandiant occupies a unique position with respect to this problem because they are one of only two security service companies with substantial counter-APT consulting experience.

You may read blog posts and commentary from other security service providers who either 1) suddenly claim counter-APT expertise or 2) deride "APT" as just a marketing term, or FUD, or some other term to hide their inexperience with this problem. The fact remains that, when organizations meet in closed forums to do real work on this problem, the names and faces are fairly constant. They don't include those trying to make an APT "splash" or those pretending APT is not a real problem.

Mandiant finishes its report with the following statement:

[T]his is a war of attrition against an enemy with extensive resources. It is a long fight, one that never ends. You will never declare victory.

I can already hear the skeptics saying "It never ends, so you can keep paying Mandiant consulting fees!" or "It never ends, so you can keep upgrading security products!" You're wrong, but nothing I say will convince some of you. The fact of the matter is that until the threat is addressed at the nation-state to nation-state level, victim organizations will continue to remain victims. This is not a problem that is going to be solved by victims better defending themselves. The cost is simply too great to take a vulnerability-centric approach. We need a threat-centric approach, where those with the authority to apply pressure on the threat are allowed to do so, using a variety of instruments of national power. This is the unfortunate reality of the conflict in which we are now engaged.

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Review of Professional Penetration Testing Posted

Amazon.com just posted my three star review of Professional Penetration Testing by Thomas Wilhelm. From the review:

I had fairly high hopes for Professional Penetration Testing (PPT). The book looks very well organized, and it is published in the new Syngress style that is a big improvement over previous years. Unfortunately, PPT should be called "Professional Pen Testing Project Management." The vast majority of this book is about non-technical aspects of pen testing, with the remainder being the briefest overview of a few tools and techniques. You might find this book useful if you either 1) know nothing about the field or 2) are a pen testing project manager who wants to better understand how to manage projects. Those looking for technical content would clearly enjoy a book like Professional Pen Testing for Web Applications by Andres Andreu, even though that book is 3 years older and focused on Web apps.

This is my 300th Amazon.com book review. I wish I had planned the review schedule such that I reviewed a five star book for number 300.

I reported my 200th book review for Building an Internet Server With FreeBSD 6 in August 2006.

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Energy Sector v China

The aftershocks of Google v China continue to rumble as more companies are linked to the advanced persistent threat. Mark Clayton from the Christian Science Monitor wrote a story titled US oil industry hit by cyberattacks: Was China involved? I found these excerpts interesting.

At least three US oil companies were the target of a series of previously undisclosed cyberattacks that may have originated in China and that experts say highlight a new level of sophistication in the growing global war of Internet espionage.

The oil and gas industry breaches, the mere existence of which has been a closely guarded secret of oil companies and federal authorities, were focused on one of the crown jewels of the industry: valuable “bid data” detailing the quantity, value, and location of oil discoveries worldwide...

The companies – Marathon Oil, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips – didn’t realize the full extent of the attacks, which occurred in 2008, until the FBI alerted them that year and in early 2009. Federal officials told the companies proprietary information had been flowing out, including to computers overseas...

“What these guys [corporate officials] don’t realize, because nobody tells them, is that a major foreign intelligence agency has taken control of major portions of their network,” says the source familiar with the attacks. “You can’t get rid of this attacker very easily. It doesn’t work like a normal virus. We’ve never seen anything this clever, this tenacious...”

Many experts say the theft of this kind of information – about, for instance, the temperature and valve settings of chemical plant processes or the source code of a software company – can give competitors an advantage, and over time could degrade America’s global economic competitiveness...

Even more basic, many corporate executives aren’t aware of how sophisticated the new espionage software has become and cling to outdated forms of electronic defense...

[B]ased on the kind of information that was being stolen, federal officials said a key target appeared to be bid data potentially valuable to “state-owned energy companies...”

China would certainly be interested in this kind of data, experts say. With the country’s economy consuming huge amounts of energy, China’s state-owned oil companies have been among the most aggressive in going after available leases around the world, particularly in Nigeria and Angola, where many US companies are also competing for tracts...

“What I’m saying to you is that it’s not just the oil and gas industry that’s vulnerable to this kind of attack: It’s any industry that the Chinese decide they want to take a look at,” says an FBI source. “It’s like they’re just going down the street picking out what they want to have.”

Expect more denials from party spokesmen in China.

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Look Beyond the Exploit

The post One Exploit Should Not Ruin Your Day by Dino Dai Zovi made me think:

Finally, the larger problem is that it only took one exploit to compromise these organizations. One exploit should never ruin you day. [sic]

No, that is wrong. The larger problem is not that it "only took one exploit to compromise these organizations." I see this mindset in many shops who aren't defending enterprises on a daily basis. This point of view incorrectly focuses on exploitation as a point-in-time, "skirmish" event, disconnected from the larger battle or the ultimate campaign.

The real "larger problem" is that the exploit is only part of a campaign, where the intruder never gives up. In other words, comprehensive threat removal is the problem. There is no "cleaning," or "disinfecting," or "recovery" at the battle or campaign level. You might restore individual assets to a semi-trustworthy state, but the advanced persistent threat only cares that they can maintain long-term access to the environment.

If the problem were simply defending against a compromised asset, we would not still be talking about this issue. Rather, the problem is that it is exceptionally difficult, if not impossible, to remove this threat. Individual exploits add to the problem but they are only skirmishes.

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Review of Network Maintenance and Troubleshooting Guide, 2nd Ed Posted

Amazon.com just posted my 5 star review of Network Maintenance and Troubleshooting Guide, 2nd Ed by Neal Allen. From the review:

Good network troubleshooting books are rare. TCP/IP Analysis and Troubleshooting Toolkit by Kevin Burns (2003), Troubleshooting Campus Networks by Priscilla Oppenheimer and Joseph Bardwell (2002), and Network Analysis and Troubleshooting by Scott Haugdahl (1999) come to mind. Network Maintenance and Troubleshooting Guide (NMATG) brings a whole new dimension to network analysis, particularly at the lowest levels of the OSI model. I found topics covered in NMATG that were never discussed in other books. While not for every networking person, NMATG is a singular reference that belongs on a network professional's shelf.

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